Shutdown-Disrupted Inflation Data Sparks Debate Over CPI Reliability

November's inflation report landed with unsettling ambiguity. The headline 2.7% reading—below both the 3.1% forecast and September's 3%—masked deeper methodological cracks. With the government shutdown paralyzing data collection for six weeks, the Bureau of Labor Statistics resorted to imputing swaths of the Consumer Price Index. Core inflation's 2.6% undershot expectations by similar margins, amplifying concerns about statistical integrity.

Economists note the BLS discarded October's report entirely due to unusable survey data, forcing heavy reliance on estimates. Imputed values, already accounting for 40% of September's CPI inputs amid budget cuts, dominated November's calculations. The agency declined to disclose their current share, leaving markets to question whether the softer numbers reflect economic reality or statistical artifice.

JPMorgan's Michael Hanson flagged the anomaly, suggesting the BLS may have held certain October prices artificially fixed—a temporary patch with potentially misleading consequences for monetary policy.